Verification of Seasonal Forecasts over Mediterranean Area

Verification scores of temperature and precipitation seasonal forecasts from six different operational systems for different seasons, variables and sub-regions over Europe and Northern Africa is computed based on available hindcasts.

The seasonal forecasting systems here compared are: i) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system 4, ii) Météo-France system 5, iii) UK Met Office system 9 (GloSea5), iv) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) system version 2, v) Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and vi) Japanese Seasonal Forecasting System 2.

Two different period of verification were considered: firstly, 1997-2009, the maximum common period for all models, and, secondly, the maximum available hindcast period for each model.

Results show noticeable dependency on the selected verification period. As expected, scores for temperature are better than for precipitation, with large differences among regions. Windows of opportunity associated to certain seasons/variables/models/regions are clearly identifiable. The dependency of such windows on the verification period weaken conclusions and their applicability.

Select parameters and click on "Show" to watch results over the whole Mediterranean region. Log in and then click on section "Verification" of the main menu to watch results over specific domains.



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