Seventeenth MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (ON-LINE)
Oct 18 - Nov 25, 2021
MedCOF-17 comprises 3 steps. The first one is been devoted to verification of the MedCOF-16 summer forecast; the second one to the assessment of current state of climate and, finally, the third one to the building of consensus statements.There will also be a preCOF on-line session.
In every step, all communications have gone through the forum tool: http://medcoforum.aemet.es.
Pre-COF
Date: Mon 29th Nov 09:00 CET
(Joint to the event here: https://aemet.webex.com/aemet-en/j.php?MTID=m2cbe3d89ce13884e6afb90b45c3f9e3e)
Tentative program:
- 09:00 - 09:30: S. Gualdi, CMCC: Recent news and discussion on the MSCU
The Mediterranean Seasonal Climate Update (MSCU) is an outcome from the ERA4CS MEDSCOPE project consisting of a compilation SF systems and multimodels outputs including verification scores over a hindcast period (https://www.medscope-project.eu/products/mediterranean-seasonal-climate-update/ )
- 09:30 - 09:45 E. Rodriguez-Camino, AEMET: Guidelines for Objective SF.
The document "Guidance for MedCOF sub-region to enable operational production of objective seasonal forecasts (OSF)" is available on the MedCOF forum (http://medcoforum.aemet.es/ ) under the topic “Discussion on Guidance for OSF in MedCOF” in MedCOF-17/PreCOF
- 09:45 - 12:15 Discussion on Guidelines for Objective SF
The main issues raised so far on the "Guidance for MedCOF sub-region to enable operational production of objective seasonal forecasts" document will be here discussed. Each item will be briefly introduced and moderated by a presenter from the MG. A time slot of approximately 20 min. has been allocated for each item to hear different views from the participants. The Guidelines document will be updated taking on board comments and suggestions from the whole MedCOF community
1. Should Objective Seasonal Forecast (OSF) [traceable, reproducible and well documented] be always grid based? (Jean-Michel Soubeyroux/Christian Viel)
2. Should downstream applications be based on the OSF? Or Should MedCOF facilitate access and use of existing downstream applications? (Anahit Hovsepyan)
3. Criteria for models selection from a pool of Seasonal Forecasting Systems: ability to simulate relevant drivers and/or variability patterns, skill scores, etc. (Silvio Gualdi)
4. How to incorporate a coherent message (as in current production of MedCOF) to communicate objective seasonal forecasts (Branko Bjelic/Goran Pejanovic)
5. Quick substitution of consensus for objective forecasts or parallel operations (how long?) (Esteban Rodriguez)
6. Steps to incorporate current expert knowledge into a future OSF scheme (Wafae Badi)
7. Discussion on human resources and training needs (Ernesto Rodríguez)
8. Harmonization with the rest of RCOFs around the world (Peter Bissolli)
- 12:20 - 12:30 Wrap-up
- 17:30 Closure
Click here to download the tentative program.
STEP-1: Verification of summer 2021 seasonal forecast
Editors: P. Bissolli and R. Selmi (also moderators)
Deadlines:
- Wed 27th October : National verification reports posted on the forum
- Fri 5th November: First draft (large scale) verification
- Fri 5th November – Wed 10th November: Discussion
- Fri 12th November: Second draft verification ready for adoption
Click here to download the Final Assessment of MedCOF16 Climate Outlook for summer season 2021.
STEP-2: Assessment of the current state of climate
Editors: C. Viel, P. Bissolli and R. Selmi (also moderators)
Deadlines:
- Mon 15th November: Monitoring contributions from participants (all, on voluntary basis)
- Tue 16th November: First draft for the current state of climate
- Tue 16th – Thu 18th November: Discussion
- Thu 18th November: Second draft
- Thu 18th – Mon 22nd November: Discussion
- Mon 22nd November: Final document ready for adoption
Click here to download the summary document for step 2 based on the working reports produced by RAI NA RCC-CM, RAVI RCC-CM and RAVI RCC-LRF.
STEP-3: Building of the consensus statement
Editors: C. Viel, W. Badi, E. Rodríguez
Deadlines:
- Thu 18th November: Reports from RCCs (C. Viel, W. Badi, GPC contributors)
- Fri 19th November: First draft consensus
- Fri 19th – Mon 22th November: Discussion
- Mon 22nd November: Second draft consensus
- Mon 22nd – Wed 24th (at noon) November: Discussion
- Wed 24th November: Final document ready for adoption
- Thu 25th November: Webex and adoption of STEP1, 2 and 3 documents
Click here to download the Consensus Statement MedCOF-17 for winter season 2021/2022.