Sixteenth MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (ON-LINE)

April 14 - May 31, 2021

>> Online Forum   

MedCOF-16 comprises 3 steps. The first one has been devoted to verification of the MedCOF-15 winter forecast; the second one to the assessment of current state of climate and, finally, the third one to the building of consensus statements.There has also been a preCOF on-line session. 

In every step, all communications have gone through the forum tool:   http://medcoforum.aemet.es.

Pre-COF  

Date: Tue 25th May 15:00 CET (13:00 UTC)

Program:

• 15:00 - 16:00: Presentation and discussion on Mediterranean Seasonal Climate Update

The Mediterranean Seasonal Climate Update (MSCU) is an outcome of the ERA4CS MEDSCOPE project consisting of a compilation SF systems and multi-models outputs including verification scores over a hindcast period. The MSCU is not a bulletin neither a proposal of seasonal forecast. It aims at facilitating the work of MedCOF sessions and national forecasting teams showing different model outputs with the same format. A first proposal of the MSCU will be presented and will be followed by discussion among participants.

• • 15:00 – 15:20 S. Gualdi, CMCC: Presentation of MSCU draft
  • 15:20 – 15:55 E. Rodríguez-Camino, AEMET (moderator): Discussion
  • 15:55 – 16:00 Wrap-up

• 16:00 - 17:30: Discussion on roadmap to objective seasonal forecasting

The idea for this roadmap is to translate the WMO Guidance on Operational Practices for Objective Seasonal Forecasting (https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10314 ) into a specific protocol adapted to each region. Although the transition to objective SF will need some time it would be nice if we already start discussions among the whole MedCOF community.

• • 16:00 – 16:15 E. Rodriguez-Camino, AEMET: Framework for Objective SF Roadmap
  • 16:15 – 16:30 C. Viel, MF: Current practice RAVI RCC LRF bulletin and views on OSF
  • 16:30 – 16:40 B. Bijelic, RHMSS: Proposals for OSF from SEECOF
  • 16:40 – 16:50 W. Badi, DMN: Proposals for OSF from PRESANORD
  • 16:50 – 17:00 R. Bojariu, ANM: Drivers relevant for MedCOF domain
  • 17:00 – 17:25 E. Rodríguez-Guisado, AEMET (moderator): Discussion
  • 17:25 – 17:30 Wrap-up

• 17:30 Closure

 Click here to download the program.

STEP-1: Verification of winter 2020-21 seasonal forecast

Editors: P. Bissolli and R. Selmi (also moderators)

Deadlines:

• Thu 29th April :         National verification reports posted on the forum
• Fri 7th May:              First draft compilation posted on the forum
• Fri 7th – Wed 12th:  May Discussion
• Fri 14th May:           Second draft compilation ready for adoption

Click here to download the Final Assessment of MedCOF15 Climate Outlook for winter season 2020-21.

STEP-2: Assessment of the current state of climate

Editors: C. Viel, P. Bissolli and R. Selmi (also moderators)

Deadlines:

• Wed 19th May:                   First draft on the current state of climate
• Wed 19th – Fri 21st May:   Discussion
• Fri 21nd May:                     Second draft
• Fri 21st – Tue 25th May:    Discussion
• Tue 25th May:                    Final document ready for adoption

Click here to download the summary document for step 2 based on the working reports produced by RAI NA RCC-CM, RAVI RCC-CM and RAVI RCC-LRF.

STEP-3: Building of the consensus statement

Editors: C. Viel, W. Badi, E. Rodríguez

Deadlines:

• Thu 20th May:                           Reports from RCCs (C. Viel, W. Badi)
• Fri 21st  May:                            First draft consensus
• Fri 21st – Wed 26th May:          Discussion
• Wed 26th May:                          Second draft consensus
• Wed 26th – Fri 28th May:          Discussion
• Mon 31st:                                  Final document ready for adoption
• Mon 31st May:                          Webex and adoption of STEP1, 2 and 3 documents

Click here to download the Consensus Statement MedCOF-16 for summer season 2021.