Third MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM

Antalya, Turkey, November 17-18, 2014

The Third Session of MedCOF (MedCOF-3) has taken place in Antalya, Turkey, on 17-18 November 2014, kindly hosted by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. 

MedCOF-3 has been followed by the parallel sessions of the South East European Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF-12), and the Northern African Climate Outlook Forum (PRESANORD-7) on 19-20 November. Furthermore, the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) has convened a Regional Consultation Meeting (RMC) with users communities across South East Europe (SEE) on 21-22 November at the same venue.

MedCOF-3 comprises 3 steps, which all require your participation. The first one has been devoted to verification of the MedCOF-2 summer forecast; the second one to the assessment of current state of climate and, finally, the third one to the building of consensus statements.

• STEP-1: Verification of summer 2014 seasonal forecast

As this time MedCOF and SEECOF/PRESANORD are organized back-to-back and in order to avoid overlaps with respect to verification, we have conducted the verification sessions only in the subregional sessions (SEECOF and PRESANORD). Consecuently we have required from all participants to upload in step 1 of the MedCOF forum the national verification reports using the same template as in MedCOF2, to provide:

• • • information on high-impact events of the last summer season,
    • brief assessments of the correctness of the MedCOF-2 outlook and
    • comments on user perceptions of the MedCOF-2 outlook

The facilitators (P. Bissolli, S. Ben Rached and A. Mestre) have compiled information from country reports and summarised them in one final report discussed in Antalya.

Here you can download the final verification reports:

• • • ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF THE MEDCOF-2 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 SUMMER SEASON FOR THE NORTH AFRICA REGION (RAI-NA).
    • ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF THE MEDCOF-2 CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 SUMMER SEASON FOR THE RA VI PART OF THE MEDCOF REGION (RAVI-MED).

• STEP-2 (Assessment of the current state of climate) and STEP-3 (Building the consensus statement)

Presentations have been given both for the monitoring step and for the building of the consensus statement step based on model outputs and on empirical predictive signals.

Summaries for Step-2 and Step-3 have been prepared by RCCs followed by contributions of participant GPCs and regional modelling centres. These presentations have been followed by discussion.

Here you can download the Consensus Statement MedCOF-3 Report:

• • • SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER SEASON 2013/2014 FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION.

We have also uploaded in the MedCOF on-line forum model outputs from available GPCs previously to the MedCOF3 meeting. 

If you are a participant in MedCOF-3, but you are not registered in the MedCOF forum, please, contact us.

OTHER DOCUMENTS TO DOWNLOAD:

• Template for verification reports in the STEP-1
• Information Note on Local Arrangements
• Tentative Programme of MedCOF-3
• Tentative Agenda of SEECOF-12
• Invitation Letter to nominate experts for participation in MedCOF-3, SEECOF-12 and PRESANORD-7.
• Invitation Letter to nominate experts for participation in MedCOF-3, SEECOF-12, PRESANORD-7 and GFCS Regional Consultation Meeting for South East Europe.
• List of Participants in MedCOF-3