Belgrade, Serbia, November 18-19, 2013

This prediction is based on output from dynamical models, statistical models and known teleconnections of large-scale climate features.

Sea surface temperatures have been near to normal for the autumn season in the Equatorial Pacific. These conditions are very likely to persist for the coming winter season. No clear signal appears for the winter season neither from tropics nor from other sources of predictability, e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation index, etc.

The maps show the probabilistic consensus forecast for tercile categories of anomalies for seasonal mean temperature and precipitation, relative to the period 1981-2010. Due to the climate warming trend anomalies are affected by the selected reference period.


Figure 1. Graphical presentation of the 2013/14 winter temperature outlook

Although for most of the MedCOF domain the uncertainty for the temperature prediction is high, there is a weak tendency for the upper tercile in the Western part of the domain and most of the Mediterranean Sea (regions 2 and 3). Most of the Balkan Peninsula, Turkey, the South Caucasus region and Sahara show no signal and climatology is therefore assigned for all three categories.

Figure 2. Graphical presentation of the 2013/14 winter precipitation outlook

Precipitation in most of the MedCOF domain shows no preference for any climate defined categories (region 3). Only the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula and the Atlantic facade of the African region show some slight tendency for the dry tercile (region 1), whereas the central Mediterranean region slightly points to the wet tercile (region 2).

Note that it is necessary to express seasonal forecasts in terms of probability due to inherent uncertainty. Any further advice on the forecast signals, smaller scales, shorter-range updates and warnings will be available throughout the winter from the National Meteorological Services, along with details on the methodology and skill of long-range predictions.

* The graphical representation of climate outlook in this statement is only for guidance purposes, and does not imply any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.


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