Opening & Working arrangements

Welcome remarks:

• Mr Milan Dacic on behalf of the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, Switzerland)
• Mr Tarek Sadek United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA, Lebanon)
• Mr Ahmed Abd Aal Chairman Board of Directors (EMA, Egypt)
• Information on logistical arrangements during the sessions (host)

Session I (chair: Ashraf Zakey)

• Silvio Gualdi (CMCC, Italy): “Progress of MEDSCOPE project”
• Roxana Bojariu (ANM, Romania): “Introduction to drivers at seasonal scale relevant to the Mediterranean”
• Silvio Gualdi (CMCC, Italy): “Preliminary results from the sensitivity experiments exploring the sources of predictability for the Mediterranean region at seasonal time scales”
• Q&A

Session I (cont.) (chair: Ashraf Zakey)

• Javier García-Serrano (BSC//UB, Spain): “Role of sea-ice and snow cover extent over northern Asia on predictability of the NH cold season. MEDSCOPE sensitivity experiments”
• Javier García-Serrano (BSC/UB, Spain): “Role of ENSO/PDO at seasonal time scale over the Mediterranean region. MEDSCOPE sensitivity experiments”
• Esteban Rodriguez-Guisado (AEMET, Spain): “Development of an Empirical Seasonal Forecasting System for the Mediterranean”
• Discussion

Session II (chair: Milan Dacic)

• Christian Viel (MF, France): “New products for heat waves and cold spells at seasonal time scale”
• Carmen Alvarez-Castro (CMCC, Italy): “Dynamical proxies, bias correction and statistical downscaling as tools for seasonal forecast”
• Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino (AEMET, Spain): “Combination and weighting of seasonal forecasting information”
• Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF, UK): “Recent developments of C3S on Seasonal Forecasting” (remote presentation)
• Discussion

Session II (chair: Milan Dacic)

• Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino (AEMET, Spain): “Update on the LC LRFMME operations”.
• Anahit Hovsepyan (WMO, Switzerland): “Summary of Second WMO Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction”
• Anahit Hovsepyan (WMO, Switzerland): “Moving forward in RCOF operations and procedures”.
• Milan Dacic (WMO, Switzerland): "Towards seamless GDPFS: Weather and Climate marriage".
• Discussion

Session I – Verification of previous outlooks - Step 1 (chair: Silvio Gualdi)

• Ernesto Rodríguez (for Peter Bissolli, DWD, Germany) and Salah Sahabi Abed (Algeria): Presentation of MedCOF-10 verification (draft)
• Discussion and approval of Step 1 MedCOF-11 document

Session II – Climate monitoring – Step 2 (chair: Silvio Gualdi)

• Christian Viel (Meteo-France) and Soumaya Ben Rached (INM, Tunisia): Presentation of MedCOF-11 climate monitoring draft.
• Discussion and approval of Step 2 MedCOF-11 document.

Session III - Production of large-scale climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 (chair: Branko Bijelic)

• Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF, UK): Seasonal forecast from GPC ECMWF and GPC Exeter (remote presentation)
• Valentina Khan (Hydrometeorological Research Center, Russia): Seasonal forecast from GPC Moscow.
• Pierre Etchevers (Meteo-France, France): Seasonal forecast from GPC Toulouse
• Silvio Gualdi (CMCC, Italy): Seasonal forecast from CMCC

Session III - Production of large-scale climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 (cont.) (chair: Roxana Bojariu)

• Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado (AEMET, Spain): Seasonal forecast from statistical systems
• Christian Viel (Meteo-France, France): Summary from RA VI RCC-LRF
• Hubert Kabengela Nyamabu (ACMAD, Niger): Summary from RA I RCC-LRF
• Wafae Badi (DMN, Morocco): Summary from North African RCC-LRF
• Arjan Zamreeg & Mr. Said Al Sarmi (GCC) ( tbc ) (GAMEP, Saudi Arabia): Summary from GCC
• Discussion

Session III - Production of large-scale climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 (Chair: C. Viel/W. Badi) (cont.)

• Editing and provisional MedCOF-11 climate outlook statement (step 3 document)

Parallel sessions SEECOF-20, PRESANORD-12 and ArabCOF-3

Session 2: Climate monitoring and verification of previous climate outlooks (SEECOF-18 and -19) (Chair: Ms. Roxana Bojariu (tbc))

• Verification of the SEECOF-18 Climate outlook for 2017/2018 winter season: Mr. Branko Bijelic, RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS (30 minutes)
• Verification of the SEECOF-19 Climate outlook for 2018 summer season: Ms. Ana Savovic, RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS (30 minutes)
• Climate outlook for 2018 summer in the SEECOF member states:
  • Verification of the SEECOF-19 Climate outlook for 2018 summer season in Croatia: Ms Dunja Placko-Vrsnak, Croatia(10 minutes) (tbc)
  • Verification of the SEECOF-19 Climate outlook for 2018 summer season in Georgia: Ms. Khatuna Kokosadze, Georgia (10 minutes)( tbc)
  • Verification of the SEECOF-19 Climate Outlook for 2018 summer in Bulgaria: Mr. Ilian Gospodinov, Bulgaria (10 minutes) (tbc)
• Discussion and approval of the draft documents of the verification of the SEECOF-18 and SEECOF-19 Climate Outlooks

Session 2: Climate monitoring and verification of previous climate outlooks (PRESANORD-11) Chair: Mr Salah Sahabi Abed (tbc)

• Verification of the PRESANORD-11 outlook for 2017/18 winter season: Mr Salah Sahabi Abed (tbc)
• Verification of PRESANORD-11 climate outlook over :
  • Algeria: Mr Salah Sahabi Abed (tbc)
  • Egypt: Ms Awatif Mostafa (tbc)
  • Lybia: Mr Eshtewi Rabha (tbc)
  • Morocco: Ms Wafae Badi
  • Tunisia: Ms Rabeb Selmi (tbc)
• Discussion and approval of PRESANORD-11 verification

Session 2: Climate monitoring and verification of previous climate outlooks (ArabCOF-1 and -2)

• Verification of ArabCOF -2 outlook for spring 2018
• Presentation of ArabCOF-3 climate monitoring draft
• Discussion and approval of Step 2 ArabCOF-3 document.

Participants:

• Mr. Sahabi Abed (tbc)
• Mr. Tariq Joumah Abid Sharaan(Jordan) ( tbc )
• Mr. Said Al Sarmi (GCC) (tbc)
• Mr. Awatif Mosftfa (Egypt) ( tbc )
• Ms. Soumaya Ben RACHED

Parallel sessions SEECOF-20, PRESANORD-12 and ArabCOF-3 (cont)

Session 3 - Production of regionalized climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 over SEECOF domain (continuation) (Chair: Ms. Mirjana Ivanov)

• Short review of Global and regional Inputs
• Global Inputs: Mr. C.Viel (RA VI RCC on LRF Meteo-France) (tbc)
• Regional inputs:
  • MedCOF input: Mr. E. Rodriguez Camino (AEMET)
  • SEEVCCC input: Mr. Branko Bijelic RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS (tbc)
  • Climate predictive signals for the SEECOF region: Ms. Roxana Bojariu (National Meteorological Administration, Romania) (tbc)
• National inputs:
  • Climate outlook for winter 2018-2019 in Bulgaria: Mr I. Gospodinov, NIMH, Bulgaria (tbc)
  • Discussion
  • Editing and production of SEECOF-20 Climate Outlook bulletin: Mr. Branko Bijelic, RA VI RCC-SEEVCCC/RHMSS

Session 3 - Production of regionalized climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 over PRESANORD domain (continuation) (Chair: Ms Wafae Badi)

• Short review of Global and regional Inputs
• Global Inputs: Mr. Ernesto Rodriguez Camino
• Regional inputs:
  • MedCOF input: Mr. E. Rodriguez Camino (AEMET)
  • PRESANORD input: Ms. Wafae Badi
  • Climate predictive signals for the PRESANORD region
• National inputs:
  • Discussion
  • Editing and production of PRESANORD-12 Climate Outlook bulletin: All participants

Session 3 - Production of regionalized climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 over ArabCOF domain (continuation)

• Short review of Global and regional Inputs
• Global Inputs
• Regional inputs:
  • MedCOF input
  • ArabCOF input
  • Climate predictive signals for the ArabCOF region
• National inputs:
  • Discussion
  • Editing and production of ArabCOF-3 Climate Outlook bulletin

Participants:

• Ms.Awatif Mosftafa(tbc)
• Mr.Arjan Zamreeg(tbc)
• Ms.Samia Al- Zakwani (tbc)
• Ms. Wafee Badi (tbc)
• Ms. Rabeb Selmi (tbc)
• Mr. Salah Shabi (tbc)

Parallel sessions SEECOF-20, PRESANORD-12 and ArabCOF-3 (cont)

Session 3 - Production of regionalized climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 over SEECOF domain (continuation) (Chair: Mr Branko Bjelic)

• Discussion
• Editing and production of SEECOF-20 Climate Outlook Bulletin

Session 3 - Production of regionalized climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 over PRESANORD domain (continuation)

• Discussion
• Editing and production of PRESANORD-12 Climate Outlook Bulletin

Session 3 - Production of regionalized climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 over ArabCOF domain (continuation) (Chair: Mr Ashraf Zakey)

• Discussion
• Editing and production of ArabCOF-3 Climate Outlook Bulletin

Participants:

• Ms. Awatif Mosftafa (tbc)
• Mr. Arjan Zamreeg (tbc)
• Ms. Samia Al- Zakwani (tbc)
• Ms. Wafee Badi (tbc)
• Ms. Rabeb Selmi (tbc)
• Mr, Salah Shabi (tbc)

Session IV - Production of large-scale climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 (Chair: E. Rodríguez-Camino)

• Branko Bijelic: Brief report back from SEECOF-20
• Wafae Badi: Brief report back from PRESANORD-12
• Ashraf Zakey: Brief report back from ArabCOF-3
• Discussion

Session IV - Production of large-scale climate outlook for winter (DJF) 2018-2019 (Chair: E. Rodríguez-Camino) (cont)

• Discussion and approval of MedCOF-11 climate outlook statement (step 3 document)

Opening Remarks

Plenary session with users and stakeholders (Chair: Tarek Sadek)

• Dunja Mazzocco Drvar (Croatia): Climate information communication aspects, good practices
• Hesham Abdel Ghany (WMO, Bahrain): Seasonal forecasts importance to economic sectors
• Stakeholder representatives: statements/presentations on the current status of utilization of climate information and products provided by EMA, and their needs and requirements of tailored products for decision making in agriculture and water management

• Open discussions (Moderated by Chair)
• Concluding remarks of the session with users and stakeholders

Plenary discussion on MedCOF/SEECOF/ArabCOF/PRESANORD internal matters (Chair: E. Rodríguez Camino)

• Discussion on gaps, constraints, proposal for improvement of sessions
• Conclusions and Recommendations for way forward